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The wireless industry is facing a revolution that challenges the business model it has employed successfully for 25 years, a revolution that the author describes as wireless 4.0. One group of analysts suggests that 80 percent of today's telecom carriers will fail in trying to convert themselves into content enablers in the wireless 4.0 age. The driving force is the Internet, which has already taken over the wired communications (telephone) network, and the manufacturers and users of wireless digital devices. Historically, the wireless industry has always been focused on its networks, an enormous investment that has rendered the industry characteristically slow-moving. New technologies and new networks are implemented only over a period of years. In contrast the Internet and the digital device worlds operate at lightning speed, churning out new ideas, new products, and new ways for consumers to interact. In the emerging wireless era, devices will drive the networks rather than the other way around. Wireless network operators who fail to adapt by providing networks that can meet the new requirements are doomed to be pushed to the wayside. Already, 13 percent of American households rely entirely on cellphones for communications, and spending on wireless service is approaching spending on land line telephone service. Yet the voice-oriented wireless networks are about to be inundated by data transmission demand. At the same time, players from the Internet--such as Google--are preparing to bid big for the additional transmission spectrum that is entering the network market. Although the elections will stall most action on the policy and regulatory fronts, 2008 promises to be a year of transformation for the wireless industry.
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